Welcome to this week’s Clarity Edge newsletter.
In each edition, I share my weekly trade planning, market analysis, and any insights I believe are important to highlight. The focus is on providing clear, actionable swing trade ideas backed by technical analysis.
In this issue, you’ll find:
A potential breakdown setup in EURCAD
A support-driven long idea in GBPCHF
An update on the USDCAD breakout trade shared earlier this month
EURCAD Rising Wedge Swing Idea
EURCAD is pushing higher in a strong uptrend, but two rising wedge formations are beginning to show cracks. These structures often signal weakness, and both price action and momentum are flashing warnings.
The smaller wedge could trigger first, with a measured move of 2.21%. My conservative target would be the trendline of the larger wedge, while the more aggressive target sits near a major swing low. Declining volume during the rally adds further pressure.
I’m watching for a break below the smaller wedge’s trendline as my first confirmation. On Balance Volume is already below local support and the 20 EMA, while MACD and RSI divergences further highlight downside risk.
If price breaks lower, this could develop into a high-probability short.
GBPCHF – Range Support Holding
GBPCHF is testing a multi-year support zone that has held for about four years. While repeated retests raise the risk of a breakdown, the level is still intact, and Friday’s bullish daily close hints at a possible bounce.
If support holds, upside targets include the 50% Fib retrace and the descending trendline, which could converge as a profit-taking area.
On the 4H chart, I’m watching for a breakout above the descending trendline as first confirmation. My plan is to enter on the breakout and keep a limit order at the retest area if price pulls back. OBV has moved above the 20 EMA, and a break of local resistance on OBV alongside price strength would add further confirmation.
Update on USDCAD Long
In the newsletter released on September 13, I shared a swing long idea on USDCAD. That setup triggered this Thursday, and I’ve now entered the trade. Please check the earlier newsletter for the full breakdown and detailed analysis.
On Thursday, USDCAD broke out and confirmed with a daily close above the range highs I highlighted as the trigger. The weekly candle also closed above this level, further strengthening the breakout signal.
I’ve entered 50% of my position at market on Friday to ensure exposure in case the rally continues without a retest. But since I primarily trade break-and-retest setups, I’ve placed a limit buy at the breakout level for the remaining 50%.
If that order fills and price continues higher, I’ll look to raise my stop loss and scale into the trade, keeping risk the same while improving the R:R. For now, stops are set fairly wide to allow for weekend volatility.
Thank you for reading this week’s edition of Clarity Edge, and most of all, thank you for your time. I truly appreciate it. Stay patient this week, and remember: it’s far better to take no trades, or just a few good ones, than to force many bad ones. Trading is more about waiting than it is about trading. Take care, and I’ll see you next week. Good luck in the markets.
Best,
Jonatan Randin