This is not a call that the multi-decade uptrend is over. The structural picture remains yen-negative: the Fed sits at 3.50–3.75%, the BoJ at 0.75%, and that ~300bp differential keeps the carry trade pulling buyers in on every dip. Tokyo has spent something in the order of ¥10 trillion since late April defending the yen, on top of the ¥15 trillion deployed across 2024, and price is right back where it started each time. Intervention buys time; it has not reversed the trend. So what we are setting up here is a cyclical, mean-reversion short within a structurally bullish backdrop — a counter-trend trade that needs the cycle, the levels, and a catalyst to line up. The good news is that, for the first time in a while, they are starting to.

The macro backdrop: a predictable range

The frame for everything below is simple. USD/JPY has traded inside a well-defined range since July 2023 — roughly 140 on the floor, 160–162 on the ceiling, with the 150 range equilibrium acting as the magnet in the middle. The behaviour inside that range has been notably cyclical, which is precisely what makes a timing-and-levels approach viable here rather than the usual “fade the intervention zone and pray” trade.

The 160–162 ceiling is not just a psychological round number. It is where Tokyo has physically acted, where the carry trade violently unwound in August 2024, and where every prior rejection has originated. We are testing it again.

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Weekly momentum is diverging

The first crack is in momentum. The weekly RSI is printing a bearish divergence: price is grinding to higher highs into resistance while RSI makes lower highs. Importantly, RSI is still holding above the 50 level — so this is a warning, not a confirmation. Momentum is being eroded, not broken. That distinction matters, and it is the reason we are scaling in rather than going all-in at the highs.

The local trend on the weekly is still bullish. We recently bounced off the local long RLZ around 4 May near 155, and that bounce is what has carried us back up to retest resistance. So we are respecting a structure that is, for now, still pointing up — while positioning for the rotation we think is coming.

The setup: testing the local short RLZ

Price is now testing the local short reload zone of the most recent local down move, sitting in the 159–162 band against the 0.618 / 0.702 / 0.786 retracement cluster. This is the same shelf that aligns with the broader range ceiling and the intervention zone — a genuine confluence of local and structural resistance.

Because there is no significant confirmation yet, the position is deliberately not fully filled. We are building into strength at a level we expect to reject, with the bulk of the size reserved for confirmation rather than committed on hope.

Time cycles point to an October low

This is where the chart gets interesting. Mapping the dominant cycle (the white dotted arcs), the rhythm has been strikingly regular — and it projects the next major cycle low around October 2026.

That timing is not happening in a vacuum. October 2026 is a window we have been circling across multiple assets in the Clarity Edge framework, including Bitcoin, which our cross-asset timing work has pointed toward a bottom in the same period. When an FX pair and a risk asset that move on related liquidity dynamics both project lows into the same window, that confluence is worth weighting. It is the kind of cross-market timing alignment that rarely shows up cleanly and is hard to ignore when it does.

DPO: the cycle is topping

To measure the cycle objectively rather than by eye, I have the Detrended Price Oscillator set to a length of 37 — derived from the September 2024 low to the May 2025 low, measured trough-to-trough as one complete rotation. That ~37-week cadence is what the vertical cycle markers are built on, and it has held remarkably well across the prior turns.

With the trend stripped out, the DPO is currently sitting at a high — exactly the part of the cycle where a top tends to form. So the oscillator is corroborating what the time arcs imply: we are late in the up-phase of the dominant cycle, in the zone where the next rotation lower should begin.

Accumulation/Distribution is the missing confirmation

The one indicator still firmly against the short is Accumulation/Distribution, which remains in a clean, unbroken weekly uptrend. Buying pressure is still dominant. This is the signal I most want to see roll over before treating the top as confirmed.

The practical catch: a weekly A/D breakdown will most likely only materialise once price breaks below 156 — and by then, a chunk of the move is already behind us, making it a late entry. That is the core tension of this trade. Confirmation and price are in conflict: wait for the clean signal and you give up edge; lean in early and you are fading a trend that is still technically intact. We resolve it by doing both — a starter position into the RLZ now, the balance added on the 156 break and A/D rollover.

The catalyst

Cycles and levels set the table, but counter-trend FX reversals need a fundamental trigger, because intervention alone has not held. The most concrete near-term catalyst is the BoJ meeting on 15–16 June. A hawkish surprise or an actual hike would narrow the differential and could ignite a carry-trade unwind — the August 2024 playbook, when a BoJ hike sent the Nikkei down 12% in a single session as leveraged positions blew out. The energy-driven inflation from the Iran conflict is what keeps that hike on the table. That is the fundamental engine that could power the cyclical top into an actual move.

The trade

• Bias: Short USD/JPY — cyclical, counter-trend, within a structurally bullish range

• Entry: Scaling in at the local short RLZ (159–162); balance added on a weekly break below 156 with A/D confirmation

• First target: Range EQ around 150 — take partial profit and secure the trade here

• Cycle target: ~142 into the projected October 2026 cycle low

• Hold: ~20–30 weeks, consistent with the cycle timing into Q4 2026

• Total risk: 5% of portfolio

• Invalidation: A weekly close above the 160–162 intervention ceiling. A confirmed break of the range highs reopens multi-decade highs and kills the cyclical thesis — at that point the carry trade has won the round and we stand aside.

Bottom line

We have momentum divergence, a local and structural resistance confluence, a cycle measured by DPO that is topping, and time arcs projecting a low into October 2026 that lines up with our broader cross-asset timing — including Bitcoin. The one holdout is Accumulation/Distribution, which keeps us disciplined: starter size now, full conviction on the 156 break. With the BoJ on 15–16 June as the live catalyst, the risk/reward of beginning to build short here, against a clearly defined invalidation above 162, is the kind of asymmetry worth acting on.

This is positioning commentary for the Clarity Edge community, not personal investment advice. Trade your own plan and manage your own risk.

I completed my regular weekly market scan this morning, and the full video recording is now available below. Along with the video, I’m sharing some of the most interesting charts and the key pairs I’m watching this week.

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Current Trade Updates

EUR/USD: Holding the Line

My two-week-old short position is inching closer to the Stop Loss (SL), but critically, there is no technical invalidation yet. I’m holding the trade as planned. This is the beauty of basing your analysis on the Daily timeframe, you can completely ignore the intra-day noise, eliminating stress and allowing the market to prove your thesis right or wrong. I’ve slightly adjusted the SL lower to reduce potential risk on this position.

Gold (XAU/USD): Breakout & Momentum

The Gold long position, which I’ve held since last week, is looking great following its recent breakout. This move confirms the upward momentum we identified. I’ve already moved my stops up to lock in profit and will look to trail them further to the next higher swing low, maintaining a low-risk, high-reward structure.

Charts on Watch This Week

EUR/CAD: Distribution Watch

On EUR/CAD, I’m monitoring a potential distribution range. This setup remains unconfirmed until we see a decisive break below the established range lows. We are currently waiting for the market to signal its next direction before committing.

EUR/NZD: Bullish Engulfing in the RLZ

EUR/NZD is currently inside the Long Reload Zone (RLZ) within a well-defined uptrend. Today’s candle is shaping up to potentially close as a strong bullish engulfing pattern right inside this key area. If the close confirms this setup, I will be looking to enter a long trade tomorrow morning.

Thanks for reading this week’s update! Remember to watch the full scan video to see the charts in detail. For real-time trade adjustments, entries, and chat, make sure you hop into the Discord server (it’s 100% free)!

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The reaction in crypto was brutal, marking the largest liquidation event in the history of the market, wiping out billions in leveraged positions within hours.

Reports also surfaced that an insider trader opened a massive Bitcoin short about 30 minutes before Trump’s announcement, reportedly profiting around $200 million while many retail traders were wiped out.

We’ve actually seen something similar before, back in April, when Trump’s tariff plans were first announced, markets reacted with the same fear and volatility, only to rebound strongly once the panic settled.

The key is to look beyond the headlines and focus on the underlying macro narrative.

The U.S. economy remains resilient, liquidity conditions are still supportive, and we’re still operating in a Goldilocks environment — not too hot, not too cold.

Even with tariffs and short-term volatility, the bigger story is fiscal dominance, with the government continuing to spend aggressively while the Fed gradually shifts toward a looser stance.

These are still constructive backdrops for risk assets, including crypto.

What we’re seeing now is fear and forced unwinding, not a breakdown of the trend.

As for those of you who don’t know, I’ve recently opened up my trading community to the public.

For years, I’ve been sharing analysis, strategies, and education within smaller circles, but now I want to take this a step further and build something much bigger, a community built on real education, transparency, and collaboration.

When I started trading, I spent thousands of dollars on courses and programs that promised “secrets” and “exclusive strategies,” only to realize most of them were just basic concepts repackaged with a shiny label. I don’t want anyone here to go through that same experience.

My goal with this community is simple, to build the most valuable and genuinely useful trading and investing community out there. A place that focuses on macro and technical analysis, on helping traders understand why markets move, not just where.

This community will remain free, and it’s meant to serve as a platform for growth, connection, and education, for investors, swing traders, and anyone serious about learning. Over time, I’ll continue adding resources, videos, and live analysis, with everything aimed at helping you build confidence and independence as a trader.

If you haven’t joined yet, you’re more than welcome to. It’s where I share my day-to-day updates, analysis, and thoughts on the markets in real time.

Stay calm, zoom out, and keep your focus on what truly matters.

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I’m excited to share some big news: the Clarity Edge community is now officially back open, and this time it’s completely free for everyone to join.

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Over the past few months, I’ve been rethinking what I want this community to represent. What I realized is that the value of Clarity Edge was never meant to be locked behind a paywall. The real purpose has always been to help as many traders as possible by providing clarity, structure, and education in an industry that often lacks it.

That’s why I decided to make everything open access, the same tools, analysis, and insights that were once available only to paid members are now free for everyone.

What You’ll Find Inside

The new community is built around what is called Fusion Analysis, a framework that combines Technical Analysis, Fundamental and Macro Analysis, and Market Sentiment into one cohesive view of the markets.

This is where I share:

• Swing trade ideas across Forex and Crypto

• Long-term portfolio allocations – this is my own investment portfolio, which currently consists of 60% stocks, 30% gold, and 10% Bitcoin. I’ll share any updates to this along with the reasoning and analysis behind it.

• Macro and intermarket analysis that connects the dots between asset classes

• Professional insights into my day-to-day operations as an employee of The5ers and as the Senior Market Analyst at PrimeXBT

• My complete trading systems, processes, and frameworks, all open for you to study and learn from

No hype, no paywalls, just honest and structured market insight.

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The community is hosted on Discord and it’s open right now.
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A Note for New Readers

If you’re receiving this email for the first time, it’s because you were part of the previous Clarity Edge community on Whop.
In the process of shutting that site down, I’ve imported all members into this new newsletter so you can continue receiving updates, analysis, and community information directly from me.

See you inside,
Jonatan Randin
Founder, Clarity Edge Analysis

In this bonus edition of Clarity Edge, I want to share three altcoins I am currently watching. These aren’t signals or trade recommendations, but rather projects that stand out both fundamentally and technically.

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TAO (Bittensor)

Bittensor is building a decentralised marketplace for AI models, with its token TAO at the centre of incentives and governance. What makes it interesting is the combination of Bitcoin-like scarcity, a fixed supply and halvings, with exposure to one of the strongest narratives both inside and outside of crypto, artificial intelligence.

From a technical perspective, TAO is consolidating below a major resistance level. A clean break above the descending trendline, a reclaim of the resistance, and a reclaim of the daily 200 simple moving average, ideally with increased volume, would suggest that we are exiting the accumulation zone and entering the public participation phase. In simpler terms, that’s the point where a new bull market begins.

And if you are reading this and you’re unsure about what all of this means, please don’t hesitate to reach out. I’ll gladly create a dedicated YouTube video or even a full newsletter to walk you through these concepts in detail so you can get the most out of the analysis I share.

TIA (Celestia)

Celestia pioneered the modular blockchain thesis, separating consensus, data availability, and execution. This gives developers flexibility while positioning Celestia as a first-mover in what could become a dominant model for blockchain scaling.

Price action shows TIA has stopped making new lows and looks to be forming a base. A break above the range highs and the daily 200 simple moving average would confirm an exit from the accumulation zone, just like with TAO, and would signal entry into the public participation phase — the beginning of a new bull market for this altcoin.

PYTH (Pyth Network)

Pyth delivers price feeds directly from first-party sources such as exchanges and trading firms, making it a core piece of DeFi infrastructure. As on-chain volumes grow, high-quality, low-latency oracles like Pyth will become increasingly important.

PYTH recently broke out above a descending trendline before pulling back into a support zone around 0.14. If this support, confluent with the long reload zone, holds as a base for a further move upward, even just a recovery to the nearest resistance at 0.24 would represent a gain of roughly 50%. That’s still within what could be an accumulation range, which shows the huge potential of this altcoin even before a breakout occurs. This volatility and momentum within a possible accumulation structure highlights how powerful the next leg could be once the breakout eventually takes place.

Thanks for reading today’s edition of the newsletter, and don’t forget to head over to the YouTube channel to check out the latest video I published on a few ideas in the Forex market, including the USD/CAD idea I’ve covered here extensively that has now activated and is looking great.

In each edition, I share my weekly trade planning, market analysis, and any insights I believe are important to highlight. The focus is on providing clear, actionable swing trade ideas backed by technical analysis.

In this issue, you’ll find:

• A potential breakdown setup in EURCAD

• A support-driven long idea in GBPCHF

• An update on the USDCAD breakout trade shared earlier this month

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EURCAD Rising Wedge Swing Idea

EURCAD is pushing higher in a strong uptrend, but two rising wedge formations are beginning to show cracks. These structures often signal weakness, and both price action and momentum are flashing warnings.

The smaller wedge could trigger first, with a measured move of 2.21%. My conservative target would be the trendline of the larger wedge, while the more aggressive target sits near a major swing low. Declining volume during the rally adds further pressure.

I’m watching for a break below the smaller wedge’s trendline as my first confirmation. On Balance Volume is already below local support and the 20 EMA, while MACD and RSI divergences further highlight downside risk.

If price breaks lower, this could develop into a high-probability short.

GBPCHF – Range Support Holding

GBPCHF is testing a multi-year support zone that has held for about four years. While repeated retests raise the risk of a breakdown, the level is still intact, and Friday’s bullish daily close hints at a possible bounce.

If support holds, upside targets include the 50% Fib retrace and the descending trendline, which could converge as a profit-taking area.

On the 4H chart, I’m watching for a breakout above the descending trendline as first confirmation. My plan is to enter on the breakout and keep a limit order at the retest area if price pulls back. OBV has moved above the 20 EMA, and a break of local resistance on OBV alongside price strength would add further confirmation.

Update on USDCAD Long

In the newsletter released on September 13, I shared a swing long idea on USDCAD. That setup triggered this Thursday, and I’ve now entered the trade. Please check the earlier newsletter for the full breakdown and detailed analysis.

On Thursday, USDCAD broke out and confirmed with a daily close above the range highs I highlighted as the trigger. The weekly candle also closed above this level, further strengthening the breakout signal.

I’ve entered 50% of my position at market on Friday to ensure exposure in case the rally continues without a retest. But since I primarily trade break-and-retest setups, I’ve placed a limit buy at the breakout level for the remaining 50%.

If that order fills and price continues higher, I’ll look to raise my stop loss and scale into the trade, keeping risk the same while improving the R:R. For now, stops are set fairly wide to allow for weekend volatility.

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Thank you for reading this week’s edition of Clarity Edge, and most of all, thank you for your time. I truly appreciate it. Stay patient this week, and remember: it’s far better to take no trades, or just a few good ones, than to force many bad ones. Trading is more about waiting than it is about trading. Take care, and I’ll see you next week. Good luck in the markets.

Best,

Jonatan Randin

This newsletter is written and released every Monday morning during the London session.

Each week, I share my outlook on the Forex market, while also keeping an eye on crypto, commodities, and the major indices.

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GBP/AUD Long Setup

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/AUD has just produced a strong impulse move. Overnight, price tapped perfectly into the local long reload zone, the area beginning below the 0.618 retracement. I’ve marked this test with a red circle on the chart.

What makes this setup stand out is the confluence:

• Retest of high-timeframe support

• Retest of the trend line

• Reaction from the local long reload zone

This confluence has sparked a clean reaction, and I’m targeting the high-timeframe range EQ as the next objective.

For those not already in the trade, the area around 2.04664 could act as a potential entry zone (marked on the chart as Possible Entry Zone).

If you’d like to see exactly how I built this setup, I’ll be posting a detailed breakdown on my YouTube channel, walking through the reasoning and step-by-step process behind the analysis.

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GBP/JPY Trade Idea

Many fundamental analysts are calling for weakness in JPY pairs, but in this newsletter I’m focusing strictly on the technicals. I believe technical analysis, when applied properly, provides as much edge as fundamentals — though the strongest approach is often a fusion of the two.

With that in mind, I’m working on building a team of day traders, swing traders, and fundamental analysts to provide fusion-style market coverage across Forex, crypto, commodities, and indices. Readers of this newsletter will be the first to hear more about this upcoming project.

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On the daily chart, GBP/JPY broke above the 200.50 level last week, but Friday’s candle closed as a clear bearish engulfing candle. This puts us in an interesting position: while the higher timeframes remain bullish, the short-term picture is showing signs of weakness.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, we can see a potential break-and-retest setup forming that could support a short trade. However, it’s important to recognize that this would be a mean reversion trade, since it goes against the broader bullish trend.

If you’re considering this setup, the key is to manage expectations and risk carefully. Shorting here isn’t a trend-following play, it’s an attempt to capitalize on a possible corrective move within an otherwise bullish structure.

Zooming into the 4-hour chart, GBP/JPY is currently trading within a range. The earlier breakout above the range highs also marked a breakout above higher-timeframe resistance. Now, however, price is showing a local bearish retest of the 199.70 area.

If this retest develops into a full range resolution, 199.70 becomes a potential area of interest for shorts. In this case:

• Stop-loss placement should generally be above the range high.

• Exact levels will depend on how conservative or aggressive you want to be, and I’ve marked a few different options on the chart.

• Entry could come either from a retest of this area or directly at market, depending on where price is when you’re reading this.

For now, I haven’t entered this trade, but I’m monitoring GBP/JPY closely throughout the day and the week for potential setups. My first downside target would be the range low, though intraday traders or scalpers may prefer looking for a move to the range EQ near 199.00.

AUD/JPY Setup

AUD/JPY is showing a beautiful rounded retest of the daily breakout level around 97.30. This zone has been tested multiple times and continues to act as firm support, keeping the broader structure bullish as long as this area holds.

Shifting down to the 4-hour chart, we can see a descending bearish trend line overhead (marked in white). While the pair had been printing a sequence of lower lows, last week we saw the first higher low, suggesting a potential shift in momentum.

Taken together, price action is starting to resemble a descending triangle pattern. If we see a confirmed break above the trend line, I’d look for a continuation move targeting the local highs of this structure.

Final Note on Correlation

It’s important to recognize that all three trade ideas this week are correlated. Some are positively correlated, while others are negatively correlated. This means you need to be very deliberate with how you manage risk across them.

For example, going long GBP/AUD and short GBP/JPY puts you in positions that are likely to conflict, chances are, only one will play out. That’s not always the case, but it’s a scenario worth keeping in mind.

A simple way to manage this is by scaling your risk. If you normally risk 1% per trade, but decide to enter two correlated trades, you might instead risk 0.5% on each. That way, if one position is a winner and the other a loser, proper risk-to-reward should still leave you ahead.

Finally, remember that nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. The trade ideas I share here are intended for educational purposes only, to help you study the charts and strengthen your own analysis.

Thank you for reading this week’s edition of The Clarity Edge. I’ll see you in the next one. And don’t forget to check out the YouTube video coming out later today, where I’ll go deeper into these setups.

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I’ve recently paired together with a group of traders in a collective called Pathway to Prop. It’s a completely free community where I’ll be sharing all the setups I’m taking, along with my day-to-day updates and market thoughts.

👉 Make sure you join the Telegram below for direct access.

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AUDNZD – Breakout or Fakeout?

AUDNZD reecntly closed its highest weekly close since November 2024, with momentum carrying into the start of this week.

This leaves us with the classic question:
👉 Is this the start of a sustained breakout?
👉 Or another opportunity for mean reversion?

The case for the breakout:
Trend-followers see strong local trend, bullish momentum, and higher closes suggesting buyers are in control. And a change in price behavior compared to other touches of this resistance level.

The case for mean reversion:
For over three years, price has failed to break this higher timeframe resistance zone. Each test has ended in rejection. The question is, what are the odds that this time is different?

What to watch:

• Local price structure — does behavior look different compared to previous tests of this resistance?

• Volume — slightly higher, but no major divergence or clear confirmation.

• OBV — here we do see a breakout. OBV strength, combined with changing price behavior, could be the strongest sign yet that this resistance may finally give way.

In short, AUDNZD is at a crossroads. If price confirms what OBV is already signaling, bulls may have the edge. If not, this could be yet another false breakout.

GBPCHF – Bounce Potential

Turning to GBPCHF, the daily chart shows price trading at the very low of its current range. Historically, GBPCHF seldom moves much lower than this level, and when price does reach here, it often produces a bounce.

So, while the local structure might still look bearish, the context suggests we should watch for a potential bounce from current levels.

On the 4H chart, we see further supporting evidence:

• Price has recently broken above a descending trendline.

• We are currently seeing a break and retest of that same trendline.

• Structure has also shifted, illustrated by the red lines on the chart turning green.

Because the overall structure remains slightly bearish, I’m keeping targets conservative. A bounce of around 50–60 pips looks reasonable, with a target at 1.0860.

GBPNZD – Break and Retest with Inverted H&S

On the daily chart, GBPNZD shows a clear break and retest of structure.

Zooming into the lower timeframes, that same break and retest is visible and confirmed.

On the 4H chart, we also see an inverted head and shoulders pattern forming against a descending trendline. A potential retest of that area would validate an entry.

Using the measured move rule for the head and shoulders pattern, the setup points to a potential upside move of about 100 pips, with targets around 2.2900.

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First of all, I want to thank you for being a loyal subscriber to my work. At the moment, I’m busy with a few major projects for some well-known companies in the industry (most of you probably know what I’m talking about) Once those are done, I have big plans for Clarity Edge Analysis and for all of you here.

Today, I want to share one trading idea I’m watching closely for the coming weeks: USDCAD, where I’ve combined both cycle analysis and seasonality.

The Dollar Backdrop (DXY)

Let’s start with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).

For the last 15 years, ever since the global financial crisis of 2008, the dollar has been moving within a well-defined channel. Right now, price is consolidating at the channel lows, which I view as a possible accumulation zone.

The keyword here is possible. Most fundamental and macro analysts are bearish on the dollar, so this view goes against the majority. That’s why confirmation is critical. If the consensus is wrong, price action will be the first place we’ll see it.

Historically, USD bottoms tend to occur every 100–300 days, with an average around 150 days. We’re currently at roughly 80 days into this cycle, which suggests there may still be a few months left of consolidation before a stronger move develops.

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Zooming in on USDCAD

Turning to USDCAD, we recently bounced off a trendline that has acted as both support and resistance since 2021. After a clear accumulation phase, the pair broke higher, only to establish another range just above it.

To me, this looks like a bullish confirmation in market structure. Note the sequence of red (down) and green (up) paths marking shifts in structure.

But what about those blue vertical lines? That’s where seasonality comes in.

Seasonality Edge

Looking at the Seasonax seasonality chart, history shows that buying USDCAD in September and selling in December has been profitable over 70% of the time in the last 15 years, the same timeframe as our DXY channel.

So, if the dollar is indeed in the process of bottoming, USDCAD could be one of the best vehicles to position long, thanks to both structure and seasonality lining up.

The Trigger

That said, confirmation remains key. For me, the trigger would be a break and retest of 1.38585, or simply a daily open and close above that level.

Without that, it’s just an idea. With that, it becomes a setup.

That’s it from me today. Good luck with your trading in the week ahead, and remember: no trade is better than a bad trade. Plan your week, then trade your plan.

— Jonatan

Fast forward to today, and a lot of that “someday” talk has become reality. El Salvador actually made Bitcoin legal tender. In the US, new laws are being shaped to fit Bitcoin into the financial system. Things we once saw as distant possibilities are now playing out in front of us.

But that brings me to the real question: as Bitcoin matures, will the price keep running to the moon forever… or are we moving into a stage where it behaves more like a traditional asset?

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Global Shifts in Bitcoin Adoption

The evolution over the past few years has been incredible. El Salvador led the way, but they weren’t alone. The US has been talking about creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, Bhutan has quietly mined Bitcoin for years, and even Iran has woven Bitcoin into parts of its economic strategy.

Meanwhile, the rules of the game are getting clearer. In Europe, the MiCA regulation lays out a proper framework for crypto assets. In the US, the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 opened the door for everyday investors to buy Bitcoin through the same channels they use for stocks.

Sure, Bitcoin still isn’t something you use to buy your morning coffee, and the user experience has a way to go, but the sheer level of institutional and government involvement tells me one thing: mainstream adoption might not look like mass payments at the checkout counter. It might instead mean Bitcoin becomes a widely held, highly regulated global asset.

Bitcoin as a Global Standard

Whenever I think about Bitcoin’s long-term role, I can’t help but compare it to gold. It’s the obvious parallel, gold has been the go-to store of value for centuries, and Bitcoin is now making a bid to be its digital counterpart.

But here’s the twist: while gold is undeniably decentralised and free from direct control by any single government, Bitcoin has something gold can’t match, it’s native to the internet. It can move across the globe in minutes, settle transactions without a central authority, and operate 24/7 without relying on a physical supply chain.

In times of geopolitical tension or monetary uncertainty, that matters. It means Bitcoin isn’t just a “digital gold”, it’s a potential neutral settlement layer for the modern age. Not a replacement for gold’s physical utility, but an entirely new kind of reserve asset built for borderless commerce.

The Rise of Institutional and Governmental Adoption

We’ve moved past the “if” stage when it comes to governments and institutions getting involved. It’s already happening. El Salvador holds Bitcoin on its balance sheet. Publicly traded companies have it in their treasuries. Hedge funds treat it as part of their macro strategy.

And every time another government passes a Bitcoin-friendly regulation, or another big player adds it to their portfolio, the base of the network strengthens. This growing alignment between technical potential, regulatory clarity, and institutional confidence could be the spark that pushes Bitcoin into territory we once thought was unreachable.

Charting the Path to Gold’s Market Cap

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Imagine Bitcoin’s market cap climbing to match gold’s, currently sitting around $22 trillion. In that scenario, the price of a single Bitcoin would be well into the six figures.

The chart I’m looking at overlays Bitcoin’s historical price with a logarithmic regression model, marking each halving along the way. Since 2012, each halving has kicked off a new growth phase, though the curve has been tightening as the market matures.

The upper band of this model? It lines up with a price north of $300,000 in a full-scale adoption phase. That’s not a wild guess, it’s what the math suggests if current growth trends continue.

And here’s the point: the same forces that once made Bitcoin a niche asset for early adopters are now converging with mainstream finance. That’s a recipe for a very different kind of growth, one that could eventually see Bitcoin standing shoulder to shoulder with gold as a global standard for value preservation.

If you’ve been around long enough to remember when $10,000 Bitcoin felt crazy, you know how quickly the impossible can turn into the obvious. The only question left is whether we’re witnessing the slow end of gold’s dominance… or the beginning of a shared reign.

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Looking at the weekly chart, the primary trend remains firmly bullish, characterised by a series of higher highs and higher lows. The 20 weekly EMA (white) and 50 weekly EMA (blue) continue to slope upwards, providing dynamic support. Historically, Bitcoin has often bounced in the area between these two EMAs during pullbacks, creating new higher lows before continuing its trend.

Adding Fibonacci retracement levels from the August 2024 low to the January 2025 high, we see that price recently bounced cleanly at the 50 percent retracement. This zone, which also aligned with the weekly 50 EMA, produced a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly chart, a strong technical signal marked with a white up arrow on the chart.

The current breakout has since extended to the -0.236 Fibonacci extension level, where price met initial resistance. The -0.236 extension comes in slightly below the 125,000 region, suggesting this area could act as a key level to monitor. A break above 125,000 might open the door to a push toward the -0.382 level, but a rejection there would not be surprising given its alignment with a Fibonacci confluence zone.

In the event of a deeper retracement, the breakout level around 110,000 marked with number one on the chart becomes an important support zone to watch. Additionally, the previous all time high area near 112,000 remains a probable support level where bulls may step in to defend the broader structure.

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Zooming into the daily chart, we can see further technical alignment. By applying the Fibonacci retracement from the 98,000 low to the current breakout high, the 50 percent retracement level aligns closely with the breakout zone. The daily 20 EMA is already in this area, and over the coming days, we expect the 20 and 50 EMAs to converge closer, creating a zone of confluence. This overlap could act as a strong support if price pulls back.

On the 4-hour chart, two levels of interest emerge. The first is marked as number one, aligning with the mid-zone of the Fibonacci reload zone (0.702 level) and the previous all time high area. This level could serve as support if price pulls back, possibly front running the higher time frame breakout zone. The second level marked as number two becomes key if price rebounds higher. A reclaim of this level could signal local strength and continuation of the bullish trend. Conversely, if price drops and fails to reclaim it, the area may act as resistance on any lower timeframe bounces.

For now, holding support near 112,000 would indicate local strength, while the 117,000 to 118,000 area remains an important horizontal zone to monitor, especially if price begins to retrace deeper.

Market analysis built on the belief that clarity creates edge, and that good traders simplify what others overthink.

This chart has my full attention

This pair is sitting at what could be a cycle low, the kind of level that shows up only a few times a year.

If it holds, the bounce could be violent. If it fails, I know exactly where I’m wrong.

For more detailed analysis, see notes inside the charts below

Idea is simple, buy USDJPY at range lows and let price do the work. If buyers step in here, we could see a move back to mid-range or even range highs.

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But, if price breaks below this level, that’s the signal to flip short, targeting the next major support further down.

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The blue line represents our GBPJPY Breakout System while the orange line represents the performance of the S&P500 index.

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It’s been a few days since the last update. I’ve been sick along with my family, and it seems like everyone around me is catching this virus. But despite that, the market has been moving, and our swing positions are playing out nicely.

Some of these trades have been in the works for weeks and even months, and so far, they’re looking great. The only one I’m not liking at the moment is EURGBP, but I only added a small first position since we never saw good confirmation. This is why waiting for confirmation before adding size is key—you can enter at a strong level, but if there’s no follow-through and the trade quickly turns into a loser, you only take a small hit.

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Current Open Positions:

EURGBP – Small Position, Weak Price Action

Price has moved against us, flirting with the stop loss. This setup looked solid from a technical perspective, but it hasn’t played out so far. Since we’re so close to invalidation, there’s no reason to manually close it—I’ll let it run and see if we get a reversal.

AUDCAD – Strong Move, Watching for Breakout

This trade is looking great. We now have a very solid move out of the long RLZ. Price is currently testing resistance, and if we can break out, I’ll add one final position and move stops into profit.

USDCHF – New Short Position

This is a new trade I entered just minutes before this update. If you recall from my last update, this pair has been on my radar for a while. The short is based on hitting HTF range highs, and the current break & retest on the daily looks like a clean distribution breakdown.

USDCAD – Possible Pullback to Breakout Level

Price is still developing here, and we may see a pullback to the breakout level. That level could act as strong resistance, but we need confirmation. No action for now—just waiting.

NZDUSD – Strong Trend Forming

The daily chart looks fantastic—clear bottom formation and now a developing uptrend. If I get another significant higher low, I’ll add one final position and move stops up.

NZDCAD – Watching Trendline Above

Strong moves here, and I’m watching how price reacts to the trendline above. If we see another daily higher low next week, I’ll move stops up. A breakout above the trendline will be my cue to add a final position while locking in profits.

Potential Trade Setups for Next Week

AUDUSD – On My Radar

I don’t have a position yet, but I like what I’m seeing. If we get a daily higher low on a retest of the level below, I’ll likely start building a position.

Final Thoughts

Swing trading is all about patience and precision. The goal is to spend less time behind the screens while making more money—position yourself correctly and let the market do the work.

If you want to get real-time daily updates on these setups, make sure you check out Clarity Edge Pro. As a subscriber to this newsletter, you can use the code NEWSLETTER to get 25% off your subscription.

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That’s all for now—see you in the next update! 🚀

If you’ve been following me for a while, you probably know me from RLZ Trading. Clarity Edge Analysis is the next step forward, same focus on high-probability swing trading, but with an even clearer structure and more refined approach.

This newsletter is here to provide real-time market insights, high-timeframe trade ideas, and macro perspective, all designed to help you navigate the markets without spending hours behind the screens.

Each edition will feature my active trades and upcoming setups—click the images for the full breakdown of each idea.

Let’s dive in.

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📌 Open Positions

EUR/GBP – Holding Support and Developing a Higher Low

📌 Summary: Price is developing a strong support zone, and I’m waiting for a reclaim of the 0.836 level before adding more to this trade. A breakout here would confirm a high-timeframe higher low.

AUD/CAD – Watching for a Breakout Confirmation

📌 Summary: This setup is very similar to EUR/GBP, with price finding support at a high timeframe level. I’m watching for a reclaim of 0.90 to add more and confirm strength.

NZD/USD – Accumulation Before a Breakout?

📌 Summary: We’re seeing some great accumulation with higher lows. This one looks like it’s gearing up for a breakout, but I’ll wait for Monday’s daily close before making any moves.

NZD/CAD – Averaging In for a High R:R Trade

📌 Summary: I’ve added to this position inside the long RLZ, bringing my average entry lower and improving my risk-to-reward to 2.3R. If we see a strong breakout, I’ll continue adding.

USD/CAD – Strong Breakout Confirmed

📌 Summary: I’ve added another position here as the daily confirms a strong breakdown. A retest of the breakout level with rejection will be my trigger to add again and secure the trade.

⏳ Upcoming Trade Setups

USD/CHF – Distribution Range Forming

📌 Summary: USD/CHF is testing high timeframe range highs and looks like it’s forming a distribution range. If we break and close below, I expect a move back to the range EQ around 0.88.

NZD/USD – Breakout and Retest

📌 Summary: NZD/USD is confirming a high timeframe accumulation and is now sitting near the midpoint of the long RLZ. I’ll be watching for a retrace back to 0.63 for a possible entry.

USD/JPY – Bullish Reaction at Key Support

📌 Summary: Price is retracing into a strong high timeframe long RLZ and a weekly support zone. If we get a strong bounce in this area, I’ll be looking for a long position.

EUR/USD – Waiting for Confirmation

📌 Summary: EUR/USD is showing early signs of accumulation, but I need to see a clear break and retest of the 1.055 level before committing to a trade. If that happens, this could be a long-term setup.

GBP/USD – Potential Trend Reversal?

📌 Summary: GBP/USD is in a downtrend, but I like this local structure. If we see a strong bounce and a breakout of the trend channel, we could be looking at the start of a bigger uptrend.

🔥 Bonus – GBP/CAD Textbook Example

Perfect Swing Setup

📌 Summary: This GBP/CAD trade is a textbook example of why I love swing trading. Price moved into a high timeframe long RLZ and printed a perfect bullish engulfing daily candle on the 0.618 fib level. This is a high-probability setup that can be found across all timeframes—it’s all about finding the right structure.

That’s it for this week’s update!

Swing trading is all about patience and precision. The goal is to spend less time behind the screens while making more money—it’s all about positioning yourself correctly and letting the market do the work.

If you want real-time daily updates on the setups above, make sure to check out Clarity Edge Pro. As a subscriber to this newsletter, you can use the code "NEWSLETTER" to get 25% off your subscription.

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